By Connor Wilson
In the 2022 Final Four a year ago, all four teams were blueblood programs with a history of winning and dominance. Kansas, North Carolina, Duke, and Villanova had combined for nine of the previous 20 titles before the Jayhawks made it 10 of 21. It was a casual college basketball fan’s dream scenario seeing all these familiar names playing to win it all.
Fast forward 365 days and things have changed. There’s no Duke. No Kansas. North Carolina and Villanova didn’t even qualify for the NCAA Tournament. So who do we have? A trio of first timers in Miami, San Diego State, and Florida Atlantic to go along with a UConn team that has been one of the most dominant programs this century. This year’s Final Four may not be your typical slate of games, but all four teams certainly deserve to be in Houston and I’ll break each of them down as to why, along with some predictions.
Florida Atlantic
Heading into the season, the buzz in Boca Raton was certainly higher than in years past. The Owls were fresh off of a 19 win season in Conference USA, the first time they reached that plateau in over a decade. Head coach Dusty May had many key contributors return, with most of them being underclassmen. Overall, it was looking like FAU would be competing near the top of the conference with the possibility of making a run in the conference tournament and securing just their second ever bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Well, the Owls clinched that second bid and then some. Florida Atlantic won the Conference USA regular season title along with the conference tournament. They finished the regular season 28-3 and added three more victories in Frisco to enter Selection Sunday with a 31-3 record. In the AP Poll, the Owls appeared five times, including as high as 19th in late January. It truly was a dream season for FAU, a program that has had more seasons under .500 than over since joining Conference USA in the 2013-14 season.
Florida Atlantic guard Alijah Martin
Taking a deeper look at the roster, it becomes apparent that Florida Atlantic has one of the most underrated backcourts in the country. Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin both came off the bench for a majority of the season, but nonetheless both were First Team All-Conference and each averaged over 13 PPG. Nick Boyd and Bryan Greenlee each have made at least 33 starts this year and shot around 40% from three. Michael Forrest and UConn transfer Jalen Gaffney provided some veteran experience to the backcourt. Overall, with the talent amongst the FAU guards, it really isn’t that surprising they made a deep run.
The frontcourt for the Owls isn’t as deep as the backcourt, but still has some solid players. 7’1” center Vladislav Goldin took a big step up in his second season with FAU after transferring over from Texas Tech and had 14 points and 13 rebounds in the Elite 8. Giancarlo Rosado provides some depth off the bench, and if it weren’t for his 15 point on 6-for-6 shooting performance against Memphis in the Round of 64, the Owls may have been a first round exit.
How They Got Here
On Selection Sunday, FAU was one of the biggest wild cards when it came to where they would be placed in the bracket. On paper, you see the 31-3 record, but when you take a deeper dive you see their best win and only notable non-conference win was at Florida. The rest of their “best wins” included UAB (x2) and North Texas (x2), both of whom are in the semifinals of the NIT. After that, the Owls had no good wins to speak of and a rough loss against a gritty Middle Tennessee State squad. After it was all said and done, FAU found themselves as the 9 seed in the East Region matched up with Memphis in the first round.
Florida Atlantic guard Bryan Greenlee
Against the Tigers, the Owls snuck past in what was a back and forth game as Boyd hit a runner in the lane with 2.5 seconds remaining to secure the 65-64 win. Fortunately for FAU and their fans, their next matchup wasn’t against Zach Edey and Purdue as the Boilermakers were knocked out as the 1 seed against 16 seed FDU. Against the Knights, it was Davis who shined with a game high 29 points to go along with 12 rebounds, five assists, and five steals and the Owls avoided the major upset to advance to the Sweet 16.
Once they arrived at Madison Square Garden for the East Regionals, FAU was met with a solid Tennessee team fresh off of a win over a red hot Duke squad. The Owls had their toughest matchup yet, but took advantage of the Volunteers’ trend to have struggle scoring and outscored them 40-28 in the second half to secure a 62-55 win and advance to the Elite 8. In the regional final, FAU was matched up with Kansas St. and star point guard Markquise Nowell, fresh off his 20 point and 19 assist performance against Michigan St. The game was back and forth all night long, but some timely shot making from Martin and Davis combined with clutch free throw shooting from Forrest led to a 79-76 win and a spot in Houston.
Florida Atlantic celebrates winning the East Regional
San Diego State Aztecs
In the infamous 2019-20 season that was cut short due to the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic stings a little bit more for San Diego State and its fans. The Aztecs were 30-2 and a shoo-in for a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. That SDSU team had an All-American point guard in Malachi Flynn and solid role players around him including future NBA player Jordan Schakel. The 2020 season felt like a once in a lifetime year for Aztecs fans and head coach Brian Dutcher, as it looked like the program's best shot to make a Final Four.
It turns out that wasn’t true, as fast forward three seasons later and San Diego St. finds themselves winners of the South Region and advancing to Houston. After back-to-back first round exits in 2021 and 2022, the Aztecs finally got over the hump. In the regular season, they were ranked for a majority of the season and peaked at 17th in the AP Poll. The Aztecs also won the Mountain West conference tournament for the seventh time in program history, by far the most in the league. Overall, it was yet another successful regular season in Southern California.
San Diego State guard Matt Bradley
So how were the Aztecs constructed? Like most Final Four teams year in and year out, SDSU is built on depth and experience. In the backcourt, Cal transfer Matt Bradley took a pretty big step down from his first year with the Aztecs, but still led the team with 12.5 PPG. SDSU is known as a defensive team that doesn’t score much, so it’s not surprising to see just one player averaging in double figures. Lamont Butler and Seattle transfer Darrion Trammell round out the starting backcourt, while Adam Seiko and Micah Parrish get key minutes off the bench in a reserve role. Like Florida Atlantic, one of the strengths of SDSU is the depth at guard.
The guard room for San Diego St. is deep, but there’s an argument to be made that the frontcourt is deeper. Keshad Johnson and Nathan Mensah have been the starting duo all year, with the latter leading the team in blocks at 1.7 per game. The minutes are just about equally distributed between those two and Aguek Arop and Jaedon Ledee. As mentioned, this group is deep and experienced. The Aztecs are a legit nine deep and all nine are either seniors or juniors, with the two juniors being Butler and Parrish.
How They Got Here
Perhaps not as much of a toss-up as Florida Atlantic, but SDSU certainly wasn’t locked into a certain spot either. The overall consensus in the media world was that the Aztecs would fall anywhere from the 4-6 line, with 5 or 6 being more realistic. Taking a look at their resume, some notable wins include three victories against Utah State, wins over both Boise State and Nevada, along with a victory over Ohio State in Maui that looked a lot better at the time than what it turned out to be. The Aztecs also didn’t really have any bad losses to speak of, with the worst being a home loss to a New Mexico squad that was on the bubble most of the season. On Selection Sunday, San Diego St. received the 5 seed in the South Region, opening up against 12th seeded Charleston.
San Diego State guard Darrion Trammell
In the opening game against the Cougars, the Aztecs never really broke it open at any point but pulled out a hard fought 63-57 win backed by 17 points from Bradley and some clutch shooting from Parrish. In the second round, SDSU was matched up with 13 seed Furman as opposed to 4 seed Virginia, as the Paladins upset the Cavaliers to move on. In that Round of 32 game, the Aztecs’ defense shined and the Paladins really struggled to get anything going offensively in a 75-52 loss. Parrish led the team with 16 points off the bench and was one of four double figure scorers that helped jolt SDSU to the second weekend.
In the Sweet 16, the Aztecs were matched up with the No. 1 overall seed Alabama. The Crimson Tide were certainly one of, if not the, favorites to win the whole thing led by star forward Brandon Miller. SDSU’s game plan was to limit Miller as much as possible, and it worked seeing he scored just nine points on 3-for-19 shooting and 1-of-10 from three. For the Aztecs, it was the Darrion Trammell show as he scored a game high 21 points in one of the biggest and most surprising upsets of the tournament. In the Elite 8, the Aztecs were matched up with the team that ended their season the year before, the Creighton Bluejays. In a neck-and-neck game, Trammell drew a foul with 1.2 seconds left and hit one of two free throws to secure the hard fought, yet controversial, victory and send San Diego State to Houston.
San Diego State celebrates winning the South Regional
Miami Hurricanes
After finishing near the bottom of the ACC for three straight seasons headed into the 2021-22 season, Miami head coach Jim Larranaga decided it was time to shake things up. He brought in some transfers in Charlie Moore and Jordan Miller and that changed the entire direction of the program. Those two combined with star returners Kameron McGusty, Sam Waardenburg, and Isaiah Wong made up one of the best teams in the conference. The Hurricanes, as a 10 seed, made a run all the way to the Elite 8 before falling to eventual National Champion Kansas in the regional final. The blueprint is there, but how would they build off that?
They built on it by doing exactly what they did last year: bring in transfers. Joining Wong and Miller were Kansas St. guard Nijel Pack and Arkansas St. transfer Norchad Omier. The Hurricanes prided themselves in having a talented backcourt and that backcourt led them to be a consistent Top 25 team in the country since mid-December. Having all of that NCAA Tournament experience return, it showed in non-conference play as the Canes went 10-1 against non ACC opponents. Seeing where the program was in the late 2010s, Miami making a run to the Final Four is a massive step for the future in Coral Gables.
Miami guard Isaiah Wong
I mentioned that this roster was built with a combo of transfers and veterans, but what does it look like? Pack and Wong are the starting guards and each have the ability to take over a game in the scoring department. Pack hit seven three pointers against Houston in the Sweet 16 and Wong has gone for as many as 36 points in a single game this season. Wooga Poplar is a solid role player on the wing who averages nearly nine points per game in a starting role and Bensley Joseph and Harlond Beverly provide quality depth to what is a thin rotation.
Miller is a player to watch for many reasons. Being 6’6”- 6’7” with his scoring and rebounding abilities makes him a tough matchup for opponents. He’s heated up at times to the point where he doesn’t miss, as literally he shot 7-for-7 from the field and 13-for-13 from the free throw line in the Elite 8 against Texas. Omier provides some very underrated rebounding to the smaller lineup, as he had 16 double-doubles on the season and averaged over 10 rebounds per game, one of just 13 players nationally to do so. Off the bench in the frontcourt, Coach Larranaga usually goes with a combination of Anthony Walker and AJ Casey. The duo of 6’9” forwards combine for around four points per game in around 16 minutes.
How They Got Here
As mentioned, the Hurricanes had a phenomenal non-conference season and didn’t lose a beat against ACC foes as Miami secured a share of the regular season title with Virginia and was the 1 seed in the ACC Tournament. With its strong finish to the season, most people agreed that the Canes would be a 5 seed at worst with the possibility of moving up with an ACC Tourney title. They had multiple wins over NCAA Tournament teams, including Virginia, Duke, Providence, Pittsburgh, and NC State. The only really bad losses they had was on the road against Georgia Tech and a buzzer beater loss at home against Florida State. When the bracket was revealed, the Hurricanes found themselves as the 5 seed in the Midwest Region opening up against 12 seed Drake in Albany.
Miami guard/forward Jordan Miller
In that first round game against Drake, Miami used a big second half led by a 21 point performance from Pack to avoid the dreaded 12 over 5 upset and advance to the Round of 32, where they found themselves matched up with Indiana and Trayce Jackson-Davis. Despite Jackson-Davis going for 23 points, he was out-physicaled by Omier, who finished with 17 rebounds. Wong and Miller combined for 46 points in an 85-69 win to move to the second weekend in Kansas City.
Once arriving in Kansas City, the Hurricanes found themselves in a tough spot against one of the favorites to win the entire tournament in the 1 seed Houston Cougars. Behind Pack’s aforementioned seven three pointers and overall strong play from everyone in the starting lineup, Miami pulled off the huge upset to advance to its second Elite 8 by a score of 89-75. In that game against Texas, it was Miller and his 27 points leading five double-figure scorers in a come from behind win backed by a 51 point second half explosion to send the program to its first Final Four.
Miami celebrates winning the Midwest Regional
UConn Huskies
In Year 5 of the Dan Hurley era in Storrs, the fans were starting to get a little restless. Sure, the Huskies had made it to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments after missing the previous four years all together, but both of those appearances resulted in almost embarrassing first round upset losses. A majority of the roster and key contributors who got minutes left the program after the season, as RJ Cole, Tyrese Martin, Isaiah Whaley, and Tyler Polley all graduated and went pro. Coach Hurley was left with an incomplete roster for this season, but more importantly, a cloud over his head reminding him he was yet to get the Huskies past the hump of just winning a game in the NCAA Tournament.
Soon after the loss to New Mexico State, Hurley got right to work building his roster with some highly touted freshmen and veterans and experience at the guard position. He built a roster so good that the team started the season 14-0 and made it as high as 2nd in the AP Poll before losing their first game of the season at Xavier and dropping six of eight after picking up that first loss. The Huskies picked it up again after their dry spell and entered Selection Sunday with a 25-8 record, their most wins pre-tournament since they won it all in 2013-14.
Connecticut center Donovan Clingan
So what did Hurley do that helped shape his team into what it is today? He brought in four transfer guards, all of which see minutes in the rotation. Tristen Newton came over from East Carolina and has held his grip on the starting point guard spot all season long and leads the country in triple doubles. Nahiem Alleyne (Virginia Tech) and Joey Calcaterra (San Diego) each provide some scoring off the bench and are huge parts of one of the best second units in the country. Hassan Diarra also came over from Texas A&M and has seen a reduction of minutes but still plays great defense when he’s in there. These four transfers complement stars Jordan Hawkins and Andre Jackson Jr. perfectly to make up the best backcourt Hurley has had since taking the job.
The Connecticut frontcourt isn’t as deep as the backcourt, but is just as strong. Alex Karaban has started all but one game at the power forward position and has provided an underrated scoring punch to the team. Then you have the center duo of Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan. Sanogo is an All-American level player and the best player remaining in this Final Four, while Clingan is a 7’2” freshman who has bursted on the scene with his throw downs and blocks in limited minutes. This duo of Sanogo and Clingan is better than any center duo in the country this season.
How They Got Here
As mentioned, UConn won their first 14 games of the season which in turn means they went undefeated in non-conference play. They hit their rough patch in January, but finished the season strong up until a Big East Tournament semi-finals loss to Marquette. On Selection Sunday, people had UConn in between the 3 and 4 line, with most people leaning towards a 3. They had a fantastic resume with wins against Alabama, Iowa St, Oklahoma St, Marquette, Providence (x2), and Creighton. Despite this, the committee gave the Huskies the first 4 seed and Xavier, a team that swept Connecticut, the final 3. The Huskies were set to play 13 seed Iona in the first round of the West Region.
Connecticut guard Jordan Hawkins
Against the Gaels, UConn found themselves struggling in the first half and was down two at the break. Fans already were making comparisons to the previous years as yet another disappointing finish, but Sanogo stepped up and had a double-double in the second half alone, finishing with 28 points and 13 rebounds. The Huskies outscored Iona 50-24 in the second half in route to a blowout 87-63 victory. Coincidentally, UConn had to play another group of Gaels in the Round of 32 as they faced off against Saint Mary’s. Using yet another dominant second half, the Huskies won 70-55 thanks to 24 more points from Sanogo to advance to Las Vegas.
In the Sweet 16, UConn faced off with 8 seed Arkansas, as the Razorbacks knocked off 1 seed Kansas a round earlier. The script flipped a bit for the Huskies, as it was a dominant first half that propelled them to an 88-65 win with Hawkins leading the way with 24 points. The win over Arkansas set up their toughest matchup yet, as UConn was set to face Gonzaga in the Elite 8 with a spot in Houston on the line. The first half between the Huskies and Bulldogs was back and forth, but a Karaban three at the buzzer put Connecticut up by seven and gave them all the momentum in the world as they outscored the Zags 43-22 in the second half on the way to a shocking 82-54 blowout win against the number one offense in the country.
Connecticut celebrates winning the West Regional
Predictions
Final Four: 9 Florida Atlantic vs. 5 San Diego State - 6:09 p.m. ET on 4/1 at NRG Stadium
In the opening game of the Final Four, FAU will take on SDSU just like we all predicted would happen on Selection Sunday. These two mid-majors are a combined 66-9 on the season, so they both certainly belong on this big stage. The Aztecs pride themselves on their defense, which is Top 5 in the country according to KenPom. The Owls are a more balanced team with both a Top 30 offense and defense. Both these teams have above average depth with some great go-to guards on offense. Looking at the big picture, these are two similar teams with similar play styles. In a very close call, I’ll roll with the team on an 11-game winning streak that has defied the odds all tournament.
FAU 63, SDSU 53
Final Four: 4 Connecticut vs. 5 Miami - 8:49 p.m. ET on 4/1 at NRG Stadium
In the nightcap in Houston, the Huskies and Hurricanes will provide a matchup between two Top 5 offenses in the country. These two teams play different styles to get their points, as UConn relies on more three point shooting and back to the basket play with Sanogo while Miami shoots more mid range shots and attacks the basket to get to the free throw line. Seeing how close these offenses are, naturally you’d shift focus to the defensive end. The Huskies are just outside of having a Top 10 defense, while the Canes are outside the Top 100. With how close the offenses are and Connecticut having a much better defense, combined with how dominant the Huskies have been all tournament long, I think they move on in a high scoring affair.
Connecticut 85, Miami 78
National Championship: 4 Connecticut vs. 9 Florida Atlantic - 9:20 p.m. ET on 4/3 at NRG Stadium
66 games over a three-and-a half week span have narrowed the field of 68 teams down to just two. UConn and FAU were each picked to finish fourth place in their respective preseason polls for their conferences, yet here they are playing for a title. Dusty May and Dan Hurley will have their squads ready for this one. The Owls have their core in the backcourt of Davis and Martin, while the Huskies have the dominant duo down low in Sanogo and Clingan. FAU’s Goldin is going to have a lot on his plate trying to stop those two. The Huskies also have so many perimeter threats that can hurt you in so many ways. In what will be the Jalen Gaffney Revenge Game between the guard’s current and former school, Connecticut cuts down the nets and earns their 5th title in the past 25 years.
Connecticut 82, FAU 68